Senate Forecast, 11/23: GOP still nets four, but it could get much worse

Posted Mon, 11/23/2009 - 13:23 by admin

Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 4 Seats

Previous forecast, 11/17: Republican net gain of four seats

New polls: Arkansas, Florida, Missouri

Rankings change: As Rubio gains in the Republican primary and as Meek gains on Rubio in the general election, Florida moves ahead of North Carolina and Louisiana.

Commentary: It is worth noting that while the Senate forecast has been stuck on a Republican net gain of four for the entire month of November, it seems more likely that the situation will get worse for Democrats, rather than better. The are two main reasons for this.

First, Democratic-held seats in New York and Wisconsin are currently uncompetitive, but would become lean-Republican if the GOP scored top recruits. This is because Russ Feingold slightly trails Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, and Kirsten Gillibrand signifcantly trails Rudy Giuliani.

Second, as the economy continues to tank, there could be an across the board shift toward Republicans in these seats.

The combination of these two factors makes a ten-seat Republican pickup possible. If Republicans sweep of the races on the Senate chart, plus New York and Wisconsin, the Senate will be 50-50 for 2011-2012. And that is assuming no of the Conservadems switches parties (cough, Lieberman, cough), thereby throwing Senate control to Republicans outright.

Bad times for Democrats electorally. The entire forecast can be found in the extended entry.
Republican-Held Seats

Democratic Pickups: 1-2 (One or two of Kentucky, Missouri and Ohio)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Ohio
OH	D Primary	Fisher		+5.5	2
OH	R Primary	Portman		+18.5	2
OH	Open	Fisher	Ganley	D 8.0	2
OH	Open	Brunner	Ganley	D 5.5	2
OH	Open	Fisher	Portman	D 2.3	3
OH	Open	Brunner	Portman	R 0.3	3
Missouri
MO	Open	Carnahan	Blunt*	D 1.3	3
Kentucky
KY	D Primary	Mongiardo		+9.0	2
KY	R Primary		Grayson	+6.0	2
KY	Open	Conway	Paul	D 4.3	3
KY	Open	Mongiardo	Paul	Even	3
KY	Open	Conway	Grayson	R 3.3	3
KY	Open	Mongiardo	Grayson	R 7.0	3
New Hampshire
NH	Open	Hodes*	Ayotte*	R 7.3	3
Florida
FL	R Primary		Crist	+13.0	3
FL	Open	Meek*	Rubio	R 1.3	3
FL	Open	Meek*	Crist	R 16.3	3
Louisiana
LA	Incumbent	Melancon	Vitter	R 11.0	2
North Carolina
NC	Incumbent	Marshall*	Burr	R 12.0	6

(Others to keep an eye on: Iowa, Texas)

Democratic-Held Seats

Democratic Losses: 5-6 (Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois and Nevada, plus one or two of Arkansas, Delaware and Pennsylvania)

State	Type	Democrat	Republican	Margin	#Polls
Colorado
CO	D Primary	Bennet		+14.0	1
CO	Incumbent	Bennet	Norton*	R 9.0	1
CO	Open	Romanoff	Norton*	R 8.0	1
Nevada
NV	R Primary		Tarkanian	+8.5	2
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Tarkanian	R 7.0	4
NV	Incumbent	Reid	Lowden	R 5.5	4
Connecticut
CT	R Primary		Simmons	+11.0	1
CT	Incumbent	Dodd*	Simmons	R 7.5	4
CT	Incumbent	Dodd*	McMahon	R 2.0	1
Illinois
IL	D Primary		Giannoulis	+14.0	1
IL	Special	Hoffman	Kirk*	R 10.0	1
IL	Special	Jackson	Kirk*	R 4.0	1
IL	Special	Giannoulis	Kirk*	R 3.5	2
Delaware
DE	Special	Biden**	Castle	R 0.3	3
Pennsylvania
PA	D Primary	Sestak	Specter	R 17.8	5
PA	Open	Sestak	Toomey	R 1.8	5
PA	Incumbent	Specter	Toomey	D 1.3	6
Arkansas
AR	R Primary		???	???	0
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Baker	D 0.8	4
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Coleman	D 3.7	3
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Cox	D 7.0	2
AR	Incumbent	Lincoln	Hendren	D 10.7	3
California
CA	R Primary		Fiorina	+0.5	2
CA	Incumbent	Boxer	Fiorina	D 11.0	3
CA	Incumbent	Boxer	DeVore	D 12.0	3

(Others to keep an eye on: New York, North Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin)

Methodology:

The forecast is entirely based on polling.

For now, use the simple mean of all polls where the majority of interviews were conducted since August 25th (the last 90 days).

When available, at least two polls are used for every campaign, even if the majority of their interviews were conducted before August 15th.

As the election draws closer, restrict the timeframe for polls included in the averages. During the final six weeks of an election, use the simple mean from the last 15 days.

Campaigns where one party is ahead by 6.0 or more are considered "solid." Campaigns between 2.7 and 5.9 are considered "leans." Campaigns within 2.6 or less are considered "toss-ups." These categories are subject to refinement based on continued research into past elections.

"Solid" and "lean" seats are considered pickups, while toss-ups are 50-50 for each party. States with mixed results will be considered 50-50 until the primary election. The overall forecast is the most likely seat change based on the current forecast. This is also subject to refinement.

Do not include Zogby Interactive polls and Columbus Dispatch polls, due to their horrendous past performance and questionable methodologies.

Do not include Strategic Vision polls, as it is starting to seem likely those are not real polls.

Include campaign-funded polls. Further, if there is more than one poll from a single organization, include all of them.

The basic idea is to cram as many polls with sound methodologies into the averages as possible, and weight them evenly to include more overall data in the sample. Because voter preferences don't really change that much in high-profile elections, I thought this method might produce a more accurate result through logic of regression to the mean. It seems to work pretty well, as my research has shown so far.

This is different from my 2006 and 2008 methodology in that it includes polls from 15 days out from an election, instead of only 8. Further, campaign funded polls, and multiple polls from a single polling firm, are now included. All of these changes were made to include more polls in the averages, since my previous methodology was about 10-20% less accurate than Pollster.com and fivethrityeight.com. Since they had already raised the bar so high, and since they will probably improve their methodologies for 2010 even more, it was time for Open Left to step it up.

Notes:

*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite

**= Not an announced candidate at this time